The Midterm Editor's note: This page was last updated November 6, 2026. The result recorded below is a race call by a news organization, not a certified total; the state election office certifies the official count.
Result
James Talarico (D) defeated Ken Paxton (R). The Associated Press called the race on the night of November 3, 2026. Texas was one of four Republican-held seats Democrats won, and the result helped move the chamber from 53–47 Republican to 51–49 Democratic.
| Item | Detail |
|---|---|
| Winner | James Talarico (D) |
| Called by | Associated Press, night of November 3, 2026 |
| Outcome | Democratic pickup |
A race call is a projection, not a certified total. County canvasses and state certification follow, as the certification calendar explains. Full chamber results are on the Senate results page.
Key facts
| Item | Detail |
|---|---|
| Seat | U.S. Senate, Texas |
| Candidates | Ken Paxton (R) and James Talarico (D) |
| Election Day | Tuesday, November 3, 2026 |
| Race rating | See Cook, Sabato, and DDHQ for current ratings and dates |
| Registration deadline | Has passed; see the Texas voting guide |
| Voting guide | How to vote in Texas |
Who is running?
This contest sits inside the wider fight for the Senate majority; our Texas Senate hub collects related coverage.
Ken Paxton (Republican). Paxton has served as Texas attorney general since 2015 and was a member of the Texas Senate before that, according to his official state biography. He is the Republican nominee.
James Talarico (Democratic). Talarico has represented a Texas House district since 2019 and worked as a teacher before entering politics, according to his legislative biography. He is the Democratic nominee.
Other candidates. Texas ballots can include third-party and independent candidates. The Texas secretary of state publishes the official lineup for each county.
Polls
Public polling in the Texas Senate race 2026 has been frequent, and the averages have moved as the campaign entered its final week. We do not publish a poll number we have not sourced, and no single survey settles a statewide race: samples of registered or likely voters carry a margin of error of several points, and the sponsor and field dates matter as much as the topline.
Where to find current numbers
- 270toWin's 2026 Senate tracker — state-by-state polling averages and race ratings.
- RealClearPolitics — a rolling average of published Texas surveys.
- Silver Bulletin — polling averages and a forecast model.
Each tracker dates its average, and each underlying poll lists a margin of error. Check both before you treat a lead as real; a lead of one or two points inside the margin is not a lead.
Race rating and forecast
Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Decision Desk HQ each rate Senate races on a scale that runs from safe for one party to toss-up. They do not always agree, and a rating is a judgment about the state of the race rather than a prediction. We do not restate a rating without its date, so check the current rating at each rater: Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Decision Desk HQ.
A toss-up rating means either party could win, usually within the range where polling error or a late shift decides it. Ratings change with new polling and spending, so check the date on any rating you read.
Key issues
The economy and the cost of living
Pew Research Center's September 28 to October 4, 2026 survey found that 84% of voters call the economy very important to their vote, the top answer for both parties. Prices are likely to dominate the closing argument: Texas has grown quickly, and housing, insurance, and grocery costs are the kinds of household expenses both campaigns will be asked about.
Immigration and the border
Immigration is very important to 59% of all voters and 72% of Republicans in the Pew survey. Texas shares a long stretch of the U.S.-Mexico border, so federal immigration legislation and border enforcement spending land differently here than in most states. Compare the candidates' positions on federal immigration legislation directly.
Abortion
Abortion is very important to 46% of voters overall, 43% of Republicans, and 49% of Democrats in the same survey. Texas law sharply restricts abortion, and the race lets voters weigh state law against federal proposals. Both candidates will be asked what, if anything, they would change in Congress.
Health care
Health care is very important to 68% of voters, third on the Pew list. The debate here runs through Medicaid, rural hospitals, and the cost of coverage, and both candidates will be asked how federal health spending affects the state.
How to vote in Texas
The regular registration deadline has passed, so confirm your status before Election Day. Texas requires an eligible excuse to vote by mail, and the list of qualifying excuses is narrow. Early voting ran through late October. On Election Day, polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. statewide, though county rules and locations vary.
Check your registration and mail ballot status at VoteTexas.gov. Our full Texas voting guide covers ID rules and accessibility.
What to watch in the Texas Senate race 2026
- Turnout in the big suburban counties. The counties around Dallas, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio are where statewide margins are built, and both parties will watch whether new residents vote at presidential-year rates.
- Money. Outside groups are active in the race. Federal campaign finance filings are the best place to follow who is spending and where.
- The third-party share. If the margin is close, a small third-party vote can be enough to decide it.
Results
Results were updated after polls closed on November 3, 2026. We do not report live results from the field; our results page links to official state counts and the AP race call.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is running for Senate in Texas in 2026?
Ken Paxton (R), the state attorney general, and James Talarico (D), a state representative, are the major-party nominees. The Texas secretary of state publishes the full ballot lineup for each county.
What is at stake in the Texas Senate race?
Control of the Senate. Republicans hold 53 seats and Democrats 47; Democrats need a net gain of four to reach 51, so every competitive seat changes the math.
What do the polls show in the Texas Senate race?
Trackers publish a current average, but we do not repeat a number without a source and date. See the 270toWin, RealClearPolitics, and Silver Bulletin links above.
When is Election Day in Texas?
Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Early voting ends before then, so check the Texas voting guide for the exact window.
How do I vote by mail in Texas?
Texas requires an eligible excuse to vote absentee. The Texas voting guide explains the qualifying reasons and the application process.
Sources
- 270toWin: 2026 Senate elections — race tracker and polling averages. Accessed October 27, 2026.
- Cook Political Report — race ratings. Accessed October 27, 2026.
- Sabato's Crystal Ball — race ratings. Accessed October 27, 2026.
- VoteTexas.gov — registration, polling places, and mail voting. Accessed October 27, 2026.
- Pew Research Center — September 28 to October 4, 2026 issue-priority survey. Accessed October 27, 2026.
- AP News — Texas coverage and race calls. Accessed October 27, 2026.